Will the coronavirus finish quickly? According to consultants, this is the way it might worsen

The coronavirus pandemic’s US demise toll is nearly 155,000 people, better than all the European Union mixed and orders of magnitude greater than the COVID-19 demise toll in most nations around the globe. Hotspot states like California and Florida are setting records, and Melbourne, Australia, is facing another lockdown. So what occurs when flu season arrives? Speaking to Congress on July 31, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, stated he stays “cautiously optimistic” that the US could have a safe and effective vaccine by the beginning of 2021.

Earlier in July, Fauci stated the US is still “knee deep” in the first wave as a result of confirmed case numbers have not dropped far sufficient for lengthy sufficient to squash the preliminary outbreak. 

But there might be an excellent greater menace looming. “The real risk is that we’re going to have two circulating respiratory pathogens at the same time,” Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned when he spoke to Time Magazine concerning the upcoming flu season.

We check out what docs and scientists must say a few second wave of the coronavirus, together with the way it would possibly relate to the present spike in new circumstances in addition to what consultants predict for the autumn and winter. Please be aware: This story offers an outline of the present dialogue and is up to date steadily in mild of latest and altering info supplied by well being officers, world leaders and the scientific neighborhood. It is not supposed as a medical reference.

Now playing:
Watch this:

Make your own gadgets to protect you from coronavirus

1:30

Global coronavirus pandemic: The latest news

• As the death rate continues to climb to record highs in some states, 21 are now considered “red zones.”
• In almost half of US states, new cases have finally leveled off and, in some areas, actually started trending down.
• The Midwest could soon see a surge of coronavirus cases, according to Fauci, who identified Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee as the next potential hotspots during a July interview with Good Morning America. 
• Total historical US coronavirus cases are now surpassed 4.5 million at the end of July, including over 2 million active cases.
• Statewide lockdown measures vary tremendously across the US, with about a third of states pausing reopening, a third reversing course and a third fully or almost fully reopened.

If we’re still in the first wave, when will a second wave happen?

First wave? Second wave? Forget them, according to Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. He told MarketWatch the wave theory doesn’t apply here. “We’ve never had a pandemic due to coronavirus before,” he said. In other words, expect the unexpected.

Experts believe the first wave would end when the rate of positive coronavirus tests drops to “the low single digits,” Fauci said in June. Basically, you can’t have a second wave until cases and deaths from the first wave drop close to zero for a sustained period of time. If cases spike again after that point, that’s a bona fide second wave. 

Several countries in Asia that had successfully beat back the coronavirus to single-digit numbers have begun seeing new cases again, leading some to consider the current trend in Hong Kong, Vietnam, South Korea and China a true second wave. 

The World Health Organization, however, continues to sidestep the term “second wave,” choosing to focus less on how the pandemic’s inflection points are labeled and more on what steps countries need to take to reverse course toward fewer cases and deaths.

Why do coronavirus cases go up and down so much?

At one point, about 90% of everyone in the US was under some sort of lockdown order and the curve was starting to flatten. But that all began to change in the second half of April, when a few states started loosening lockdown restrictions. By June, most of the country had almost fully reopened. Not long after, new cases began to surge once again.

Epidemiologists are starting to identify a correlation between lockdown and case levels. Basically, wherever you look, cases drop when lockdown orders are issued — and shoot back up right after restrictions start lifting. The only thing that seems to disrupt the trend is how well an area’s population adheres to disease prevention measures like wearing face masks and limiting social gatherings.

In July, CDC director Redfield said, “I think if we could get everybody [in the US] to put on a masks proper now, I believe in 4, six, eight weeks we might carry this epidemic underneath management.”

Why are consultants apprehensive about coronavirus within the fall?

Most public well being consultants — together with Fauci and Redfield — have stated they anticipate a big uptick to occur this fall and winter. The White House has admitted it is preparing for the possibility. However, a part of that prediction was primarily based on the idea that the virus would slow down over the summer, which seems to not be taking place.

Much of the eye aimed toward fall has now shifted to concern over the opportunity of two probably deadly viruses circulating on the similar time — COVID-19 and the seasonal flu, the latter of which kills around 40,000 people within the US per 12 months. Because of sure overlapping symptoms akin to fever and a cough, it might be more durable for people and docs to instantly decide which an infection you’ve.

If extreme COVID-19 infections proceed to push hospitals to the brink of their capability and skills, it might even be more durable to take care of probably virulent flu sufferers.

The CDC is nudging drug manufacturers to supply thousands and thousands extra doses of flu vaccine this 12 months than normal in anticipation of better demand. Typically, fewer than half of all US adults take the flu vaccine in any given 12 months, however that fee will increase to about two out of three for adults over 65, a inhabitants the CDC has recognized as being at a higher risk for more severe COVID-19 infections.Are we headed for an additional lockdown?

Are we headed for an additional lockdown?

Health consultants, including Fauci and Dr. Ali Khan, the previous director of the CDC’s public well being preparedness workplace, have stated that it is attainable to keep away from a full lockdown, however there are circumstances.

States should successfully check for coronavirus and observe that testing up with contact tracing. And folks should change their habits to make social distancing and masks carrying a part of day by day life. Only then would it not be attainable to flatten the curve with out having to revert again to a full-blown lockdown. Otherwise, as new circumstances proceed to skyrocket, “your only option is to shut down,” Khan stated.

More than doubtless, we are going to see numerous ranges of lockdown come and go in numerous areas, relying on the place the virus flares up and dies down, till we discover a coronavirus vaccine. Even then, nevertheless, we would not be within the clear simply but. 

“We will be dealing with this virus forever. Effective and safe vaccines and hopefully ones with some durability will be very important, even critical tools, in fighting it,” Osterholm said. “But the whole world is going to be experiencing COVID-19 ’til the end of time.”

For extra on the coronavirus, this is what’s taking place with coronavirus vaccine development, what to do in the event you or somebody you reside with gets COVID-19 and how to vacation safely during coronavirus this summer time.